nVidia o mobilní budoucnosti: Co přijde po čtyřjádrech?

Čtyřjádrové procesory budou ještě letos, po nich přijdou Wayne a Gray s integrovaným 3G/4G. Dnes osamocený Android doplní další platformy.
nVidia o mobilní budoucnosti: Co přijde po čtyřjádrech?
Kapitoly článku
  • Kapitola 1
  • Tisková zpráva Nvidia / přepis z Citi Global Technology Conference

Nvidia Corp at Citi Global Technology Conference

Event Date/Time: Sep. 06. 2011 / 8:05PM GMT

Glen Yeung
Citigroup Investment Research - Analyst

Welcome now to the afternoon session of Citi's 18th Annual Technology Conference. This is the first of two afternoon keynote presentations and we're thrilled to have NVIDIA to present to us and more so, Jen-Hsun Huang, who is the CEO of NVIDIA.

Jen-Hsun's actually going to present the entire time. We may have a little bit of time at the end for Q&A, but Jen-Hsun's got some interesting news for us and we'll let him present that.

So, without further ado.

Jen-Hsun Huang
NVIDIA Corporation - Co-Founder, President, and CEO

Thank you. Thank you. It's great to see all of you guys. I'm kind of shy about these conferences. So, I don't come out here very often, but it's been a while since I've seen all of you and we've been busy reinventing our Company. I thought I'd come out and tell you about our new strategy and, maybe, introduce you to a slightly new look of our Company.

If you -- for many of you who have known our Company for a long time, 18 years ago, we started out as a PC graphics company and we've been expanding our Company as a PC graphics company for some time. But about three years ago, something like three years ago, as we started to grow our PC chipset business, we ran into some push back from Intel. And since then, we've been exiting the PC chipset business.

We grew that business up to about $1 billion or so. And over the course of the last several years -- last couple two, three years, we've been exiting that market. At this point, we've about exited the vast majority of that market and we're out of the PC chipset business and it's nice for you to see what NVIDIA looks like today.

Before I start, if you could just take note of our customary Safe Harbor and with that, let's get going. This is the new NVIDIA. I've taken nine quarters and I've plotted two endpoints, Q1 to a Q2. Q2 is generally a seasonal down quarter. So, I thought that it would be a fair endpoint for a nine-quarter look of our Company.

The green line is what NVIDIA's total revenues is and it includes the PC chipset business, which represented almost $1 billion at its peak. We've been exiting that business as I've mentioned. And at this point, probably by the end of this quarter, we'll be completely out of that business.

As you can tell, the white line, which is our new core business, has grown sufficiently fast as to replace the PC chipset business and we've grown this core business, which I'm going to tell you about, about 30% per year. And so, this is the new NVIDIA on a relatively fast trajectory.

We have two core businesses now. NVIDIA has a GPU business and we have a Mobile Processor business. The GPU business is an accelerator business. You add the GPU to the baseline PC, as a result, you're able to experience things that you otherwise wouldn't. This particular business is about selling graphics processors to people who either need the performance or wants the performance or because the PC OEM, the manufacturer, would like to offer this to you as a premium platform. If every single PC uses the same processors, then everything would be exactly the same and the whole stack would compress into a baseline PC.

By adding an NVIDIA GPU like GeForce or Quadro or Tesla, you're able to provide for a differentiated platform as a result. Inside the GPU business, our visual computing businesses, we have three brands. This is the GeForce brand, which is recognized globally and probably the weapon of choice, if you will, for gamers all over the world.

The Quadro business is the industry standard for professional graphics. Nearly every single car that I know of, every car company, every movie, whether it's Pixar or Industrial Light & Magic or DreamWorks, every movie that's produced, every plane, Boeing or Airbus, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, when you see the broadcast and the computer graphics that's [composited] with a live video or every single drop of oil that is discovered uses the NVIDIA graphics solution. We represent about 85% of the world's professional graphics.

And our third GPU brand is Tesla. It's a revolutionary processor, whereby we generalize the parallel computing capability of 3D graphics to make it possible for you to accelerate parallel computing applications, molecular dynamic simulations, computational biology, computational finance as used here in Wall Street to do risk analysis much, much more quickly. We've shipped today about 150,000 processors. That represents about 20 times the computational capability of the fastest supercomputer we helped install in China.

If you were to take 150,000 processors, the computational capability we've shipped in just about a year or so represents the aggregate computational capability of all the Top 500 supercomputers in the world, just to put that in perspective, revolutionary speed up of computation.

My expectation and our vision is that in some 10 years time, these processors that are used in computing clusters for high-performance computing, which represents about a $10 billion market and/or another way to think about it, about 4 million nodes per year are sold into technical computing. All of those processors would be massively parallel some day. And so that represents -- we've shipped 150,000 units of this market and someday, the annual market is a few million units. So, big growth opportunity for us there. So that represents the GPU business.

Now, we have a new business, it's called the Mobile Processor business. We envision that these mobile devices would all become computers someday and that these computers would become pretty amazing over time. We created this processor, it's called Tegra. It's designed to be extremely low power first. About 50 times lower power than your average PC, but yes, our vision is that it would be able to deliver the type of experiences that you get from your personal computer and more someday. These represent our two core businesses today.

If you look at these businesses, in the context of the PC industry or the computer industry and if I were to simplify the computer industry, it's not this simple. But if I were to simplify into a pyramid, the way you look at our GPU business is that it's an accelerator added to a PC to deliver capabilities for people who either want it, needs it, want it as a gamer, the few 100 million gamers around the world and people who just enjoy playing games, needs it because they are designing a movie or creating a car or designing the 3D unibody of a cell phone or discovering oil or whatever, they need that capability or because the PC OEM uses that processor to differentiate their basic platform from basic PC to premium PC.

We serve the upper end of that market. They'll never get good enough. In fact, we serve the market where good enough just isn't and it always leverages off the basic platform, okay. So, as the CPU gets better, we frankly enjoy it more and we can offer more capability to the marketplace.

The GPU market -- our GPU business, the GeForce, and the Quadro, and the Tesla business is an accelerator business that sits next to the CPU. One of the things that I want to talk about today is why is it that -- as integrated graphics gets better and better and better, why is it that the GPU market continues to grow? People have been predicting that integrated graphics would replace GPUs for some time, but yes, every time they make the prediction, our GPU business grows, every time they make the prediction, our GPU market grows. And so, I'll talk about some of that later on today.

Our Tegra business is targeted at mobile computing, mobile computing whether it's smartphones or tablets or these [new] clamshells that are starting to come onto the marketplace. Some people call it Ultrabooks, thin and light, however you want to think about it. That particular marketplace, obviously, is growing very, very quickly. We target the platforms that uses operating systems like Android and there're several others that we'll use in the future.

This particular marketplace is growing rather quickly as you can tell. And my sense is that over time, this marketplace, although it won't replace computers for people who are serious about their computing, for people who are casual about their computing, it might increasingly replace your PC as your most personal computer.

As integrated graphics continues to get better, the GPU continues to grow as well. This market, [it places] about $4.5 billion large today, it's been growing at about 12% a year. If you combine desktop and notebook and professional graphics, the trends are, based on our outlook on it and based on industry analyst's outlook, it's going to continue to grow. I'm going to talk about some of the reasons why that is the case in just a moment.

In order to talk about the GPU market, it's really impossible to do so without talking about the customers. And the reason for that is this, some people see graphics as a feature in a chip, but for us, graphics is a platform for which our end-users experience something otherwise they wouldn't be able to experience. The PC gaming marketplace is really large. If you haven't had a chance to really enjoy PC games yourself, I happened to grow up in the gaming generation, that was the Atari Generation.

So, for me, games being fun is rather natural. I don't know how many of you have time to play games, but it's rather a large industry. I wanted to bring -- it would be great if we could bring all of you to our end-users, so that you guys could feel their energy. And so instead of doing that, I thought I'll just take a few screenshots and tell you about a couple of events.

This is Gamescom. This is the world's largest gaming event. 275,000 people gather each year in Germany, 275,000 people. 100,000 people go to the Super Bowl, just to put that in perspective. This is China Joy, on the other side of the planet, 150,000 gamers. This is an event that is relatively new. To get into China Joy, you wait in a line that's 2.5 kilometers long. I don't know anybody who waits in a 2.5-kilometer line. Gamers have no trouble doing that.

Now, the game industry, obviously, is also quite big. Here in United States, retail sales of games have declined over the years and the reason for that is because it has been replaced by digital sales. Now, the game market is about $15 billion for PC games. The overall game market is about $65 billion worldwide. A lot of that today is micro transactions. You buy a weapon for $1, you buy a little bit more health for $0.50, you click like crazy, adds up to a few billion dollars. $15 billion a year for PC games, $65 billion for the overall game market doesn't include PC hardware. Now, if you put that in perspective, the entire global industry of golf is about $75 billion, just to put that in perspective. Gaming is relatively large.

Now, PC gaming is $65 billion and that doesn't put it into perspective, because so much of games, as you know, can be pirated. It's hard to pirate, it's hard to sneak in around the golf while nobody is watching, although several of us have tried. It's a PC game, obviously, digital content is easy to pirate. And so the market for gamers is actually much, much larger than that. If you look at some of these game titles, Call of Duty, $0.5 billion (sic - see slide 11) in first week sales, if you compare that to any blockbuster movie, the best -- the largest grossing of any year, it pales by comparison. And this year -- this year, something special is going to happen. We are going to have simultaneously two extraordinary new games show up this fall.

Many of you, probably, have all already heard about Battlefield 3. I'm going to show you a screenshot in just a moment, just to give you a sense of how epic this game is going to be. Battlefield 3, since this is a financial conference, I won't mention any numbers, but I think it's going to blow these numbers away and simultaneously Call of Duty 3 is going to release this year.

In our business, games sell hardware as you very well know and this industry has also benefited this year and over the next several years, because the game consoles are starting to get old or get long in the tooth. The Xbox 360 is coming up on seven years. And the second half of a game console history, game console life are wonderful for PCs and the reason for that is, because the PC continues to evolve. And at this point, a GeForce that you can buy from retail is some 10 times faster, 10 times more powerful than a PlayStation 3 or an Xbox 360. So, this is going to be an extraordinary year for games.

Now, we look at these games and we think that sometimes the games, they already look like first person shooters or they look like war games, but the fact of the matter is not. There's all kinds of genres. There's MMORPG, role-playing games massively online multiplayers, there is real-time simulation, StarCraft, about 11 million players around the world, half of which are in South Korea. If you ever have a chance to go to South Korea, every single night you watch on TV other people play video games. It's an interesting experience, but they like it. If we go to Korea, people chant NVIDIA. We hold a gamers' conference and people are shouting GeForce. This is a culture that is steeped in video game culture and it is their way to get into the digital era.

There's all kinds of new indie games. We've all heard about Angry Birds, angry this and angry that, but you know that there is a really amazing development happening in PC games called Minecraft, about 13 million registered users, 13 million and they are building one brick at a time the world. Frankly, they are building one brick at a time the universe. There is an entire USS Enterprise with every single room, every single deck has been completely replicated. I don't know by how many people and over how long, but you can wander up and down the decks of the USS Enterprise. You could see the Star Wars Imperial Starship and it's all fully built out, cities, castles. I wouldn't be surprised if New York City has been completely replicated in Minecraft. So, 13 million users building things in the virtual world.

Now a lot of people have said, integrated graphics is getting better all the time -- that's not my graphics. I'm not (technical difficulty). This must be some other company's integrated graphics. Come on, you could do it, render it, it's just a bitmap. [Rob]?

Unidentified Company Representative

Yes.

Jen-Hsun Huang
NVIDIA Corporation - Co-Founder, President, and CEO

Is there is a backup?

Unidentified Company Representative

People say that integrated graphics are getting good enough, but Jen-Hsun doesn't think so. He can't prove it, but he doesn't think so.

Glen Yeung
Citigroup Investment Research - Analyst

(inaudible) I'm curious about the product that you have to serve the smartphone or the tablet market. I understand your strength is in applications processors. Where do you have exposure, where you've got both the applications processor and the baseband (inaudible)?

Unidentified Company Representative

Can I stand here?

Glen Yeung - Citigroup Investment Research - Analyst

Yes. Go ahead.

Unidentified Company Representative

We don't have -- our focus today is to target the segments where application processors or modems tend to be discrete. So, superphones and tablets, they tend to be discrete. In the case of superphones, they tend to be discrete, because modem technology and application processor technology are both moving simultaneously so fast. The likelihood of the two of them coming together and meeting each other on one piece of silicon is very slim. And that's why if you take a look at most of the iPhones, they tend to keep them separate and the reason for that is because, mobile evolution of technology and application and operating system evolution of technology tend to be on different rhythms. And by integrating them and requiring them to be integrated, you slow down to the slowest piece, so the benefit of disintegration.

In the case of tablets, they tend to be separate, because tablets are sold mostly as Wi-Fi and less so as with mobile connectivity. And so as a result, the integration is actually a disbenefit. We target those segments where computing capability is really important. In the future, we would like to also be able to expand into the mainstream smartphone market. We expect that the superphone market and the tablet market will continue to be disintegrated or to be separate distinct. However, if we wanted to grow into the mobile smartphone market, that is in the mainstream, the billion units or so in the mainstream, we're going to have to integrate it.

We bought a company called Icera. It's a company that is about nine years old, has gone through about $0.5 billion in R&D, created this great modem based on a technology called software-defined radios. It's basically a DSP on steroids, okay, very, very wide DSPs, simultaneously operating DSPs. And this particular company was successful in creating a 3G/4G modem. We bought that company recently and we're working on a product together that I'll show you in just a second.

Okay, so, I wanted to quickly show you why does the integrated graphics just doesn't seem to be good enough. This is -- I'm plotting here for you integrated graphics, NVIDIA's $99 GPU, NVIDIA's $199 GPU. This isn't our high-end, this is kind of our mid-range, okay. Our high-end is off the charts on this, but our high-ends tends to be used by enthusiasts that are driving at a very, very high resolution.

I'm testing the latest integrated graphics, the best integrated graphics of that time. So, in the 2003 era, it’s the best integrated graphics of 2003. 2007 is the best integrated graphics of 2007 and then what I do is, I pretend like I'm a gamer. When I'm in the year 2007, I didn't buy a computer to play a game for 2003, because I played that game in 2003. I don't want to play the game in 2003 and 2007, I want to play the 2007 game.

And so what I'm doing is, I'm testing these applications, Call of Duty, FEAR, Bioshock representative games of that year against the processors of that year. As you can see, although Moore's Law is advancing and integrated graphics and our GPUs are getting better and better and better and better every year, in fact Moore's Law would suggest that the technology would have improved by a factor of 30 times in that time frame. Game quality is getting higher and higher and higher.

Now, of course, looking at this, it's really hard to tell, but you should look at it the way a gamer sees it. This is the number one game of 2001, Battlefield. This game sold tons, changed the landscape. As you can see, it's an interesting 3D graphics game. And if you were to play this game on a modern integrated graphics, it would play just fine.

The unfortunate thing for integrated graphics is that's not what Battlefield looks like anymore, this is what Battlefield looks like, all with amazing shadows, ambient occlusion, high-dynamic range, particle system simulations of the smoke and explosions, you'll feel like you're right in the action. If you have a chance to look some of the Battlefield trailers, it is completely mind-blowing.

This particular game, just in mathematic terms, is about 100 times in geometric complexity from about 10,000 to 1 million each pixel -- each pixel. We're performing about 5,000 operations, mathematical operations per pixel to generate that fidelity. To make it look like it was bumpy or shiny or that somehow there is geometry-generated shadows called ambient occlusion or soft shadows and the dynamic range of the lights. It looks nearly photo-realistic.

Now, when you play it, you realize that this is absolutely amazing. However, you also realize there is so much more to go and that's one of the reasons why GPU is serving this very, very large market. This is one of those weird markets. The reason why I'm talking about video games although very few of you likely play it, is this particular market is one of those interesting markets that is computationally enormous, mathematically incredibly complicated, and large at the same time. Computational biology is really important, no question about it and because of the R&D budget that we are able to derive from supporting the video game industry and delighting video gamers all over the world, that same technology can go help power our next generation supercomputer for the United States.

Now, I've been asked also, it seems that attach rates for GPUs have been declining over the years and so one of the things that I thought I'll do, using Jon Peddie's research, this is -- Jon Peddie is probably the best, most well-known PC graphics analyst. Using his data, I'll just break it down for you and help you understand that in fact it's exactly opposite. What's interesting is that GPU attach rate in PCs is growing and I'm going to explain to you why that's the case when it's completely non-obvious.

So, one, the first thing I've established for you is that integrated graphics is not good enough for people who care. The second thing I'll establish for you is that, in fact attach rate is growing and let me explain to you why. Okay, we understand it all the time, but as investors, it's quite hard for you to really deeply understand the reasons why our business exists and the reasons why our business sustains.

Now, this is our PC market and the GPU attach rate overall. So the PC market sounds about right, 370 million units [are sold] this year and the GPU attach rate is about 40 points.

However, the PC market is a big market, just as in any market is a big market. We don't target every single market. For example, we don't target enterprise desktops. We don't target executive jewelry laptops. Those aren't our core markets. Our core markets are consumer PCs. And if you look at consumer PCs, which is the green, and again if you look at the bar, that's 2011, broke it up into consumer PC and commercial, which is enterprise PCs and netbooks.

If I break down consumer PC, there is two segments within it. One segment is Integrated Graphics, the other segment is GPUs. Now, one of the comments that we've been made -- that I've heard is, gee, Intel and AMD are putting graphics into CPUs, does that mean GPUs are no longer necessary? Don't forget that Intel and AMD and including us used to put GPUs inside chipsets and yet there was a GPU market.

So, the fact that they changed the location of the integrated graphics from one chip to another chip, unless you're clairvoyant, you couldn't tell the difference. From a consumer perspective, there is no difference. From a PC OEM perspective, there's absolutely no difference. Integrated graphics is integrated graphics, unless you can see integrated graphics is simply replacing integrated graphics from before.

The fundamental market for discrete GPUs, the reasons why people bought it hasn't changed. People bought it because they desire it, people bought it because they needed it. And in the case of PC OEMs, people bought it, they offer it because it helps them differentiate from a basic PC to a premium PC.

The GPU is the best PC upgrade. It is the best way for a PC OEM to demonstrably and quantifiably show to you that this PC is better than the baseline PC. And so, overall, if you look at that, look at the consumer PC and the way we look at the marketplace, our attach rate -- and we've said this before, our attach rate appears to be about 50%. Okay, today it's sitting at about 53% and our expectation is that that's going to continue.

Now, we also get another observation that's -- it's a legitimate observation, which is, I go to Best Buy's and Jen-Hsun, you said that every -- about 50% of the PCs have GPUs attached, but I go to Best Buy and I find only two models out of 10 and how does the math compute? While the reason for that is because America is a very different country than the rest of the world.

We are incredibly different. We just forget how different we are. In fact, we are the anomaly. There are very few countries in the world, very few continents in the world, whereby one retailer covers New York City to San Francisco. You can't go to a Best Buy in China, you couldn't go to a Best Buy in Russia, you couldn't go to a Best Buy -- well, the same Best Buy all over Europe.

Each one of those countries sell PCs in a very different way. Now, the reason why Best Buy has such a low attach is actually relatively obvious too and the reason for that is because of gross margin, Best Buy's gross margin, their markup is about 30 points. It puts 30 points of pressure on all the PC companies.

So, the only thing you can really buy out of Best Buy is in fact the low-end PC. It also explains to you the reason why at about 30 somewhat points of gross margin, Apple sells such a much better PC to you through the Apple Store, because they don't have to pay Best Buy. And so, as a result, everything is better. You can buy a better PC through the Apple Store than you can through Best Buy, simply because of the business model.

Now, if you look at the rest of the world, Europe is about 64% attach and China is 80%. That's really interesting. China is particularly interesting. It's our largest market, has the largest GPU attach rate, and here is the reason why. By the way just very quickly, the growth rate, of course, China is also the fastest growing. So, this is the reason why China has such a large GPU attach rate and why customers, consumers in China can get so much better PC for their dollar. And the reason for that is because of these things called IT malls. If you ever have a chance to go to China and go try to buy a PC, this is the way it's done. There is about -- this one particular IT mall is called the Hailong IT Mall in Beijing. There's 1,100 shops inside this building, 1,100 shops. Every one of the shops is basically a PC company, a PC reseller.

The distributor, the master distributor sits on the upper floor of this building. 1,100 mom and pop shops are trying to sell you a PC. You're walking down these aisles, everybody is standing in front of a PC shop, every one of them, they are all different PC shops. They are all trying to sell you the same PC. And they win through their knowledge of the PC, they win through the knowledge that they -- the superior knowledge of the components that's inside. And so, you're walking down this thing and what they want to do is they want to sell you the best possible PC, because the best possible PC generates for them the best possible gross margins, gross profits.

If they were to close that deal, close you somehow, they ask you to stand there for just a second as they run upstairs, they run up to the master distributor, they collect all the components, they run back down, they assemble it for you, and you've got a GeForce in your system.

There is no way you're going to convince this person not to sell you a GeForce actually. And the reason for that is because the more they sell you, the more they make. They also realize that they want you to have a great experience. And obviously, the more they sell the more they make. About 75% of the PCs have GPUs inside, they make about 10,000 -- out of this particular mall, about 10,000 PCs, there is 3,000 of these malls all over China.

There is another way that China differs. Here we have Starbucks, there they have iCafes. The place in between -- the place in between their home and their work is iCafes. There is about 160,000 of them. These 160,000 iCafes have something along the lines of nearly 20 million PCs in operation, about a quarter of them are being replaced each year. And the reason why they are all such wonderfully configured PCs is that only way for them to get you to come in to their iCafe is to convince you they have a better PC.

Just like when you are renting a car, you rather rent it for somebody who has a nicer car, all things being equal. They also -- by offering better PCs, they can also command a higher premium of the hourly rates. It goes from $0.30 to about $6. The $6 rates, you could bring your girlfriend, sit down in a private booth, you can both have headsets and watch every movie on the planet, play any game you like. And so, that's one of the ways that, I guess, people date in China, okay, China iCafe.

And so that gives you a glimpse into how our GPU business works, about $4.5 billion business. We create GPUs as accelerators to the basic PC platform. It doesn't matter how good the CPU is, we'll add our GPU to it. We create it for people who need or desire to have a great computing experience.

Tegra is our mobile processor. Very quickly, this is our first year in the mobile business. After our first year, we now have about 35 -- excuse me -- 53 different SKUs available throughout the world from Photon 4Gs to ATRIXs to Optimus's. The Samsung Galaxy R, that I use, is coming to the States here pretty shortly. It's available nearly all over the world. 16 of the world's top 20 carriers now carry Tegra phones.

I was a little conservative, I understand, about the growth of the Tegra business considering the number of SKUs that are out there. This is what I can control. The number of models that we release into carriers and the number of design wins, we can control this. How many days sale is harder for me to control? We were also a little, probably a little conservative, because of all the legal action that was happening out in the marketplace. At this point, aside from Germany, it appears that most of these devices are selling globally.

The tablets are doing great, frankly, sold out in a lot of different countries. Galaxy Tab is -- and people have found their position. This one goes head-to-head with the iPad. This is the one I use. I love it. If you haven't had a chance to try it, you really should. Honeycomb [3.2 has] a huge improvement and this is lighter, thinner, higher resolution, and more powerful than an iPad. This one is more affordable and they've discovered a wonderful business model.

The tablet itself is very well priced, very, very, aggressively priced, and they benefit from the keyboard sales. This particular model, the Transformer, is basically the modern netbook. If you are interested in the netbook, this is really a good way to go. Sony, anybody who is interested in the PlayStation Network, if you have a PlayStation at home and all the services that you have on there, it will just transport over to the Sony S and a Sony P, S for slate, P for being portable. The number of tablets we have in the marketplace is now about 13 and that's growing every day. Okay, just quickly on the roadmap. This gentleman asked about integrated modems. We look at the mobile market in three segments and our strategy is to expand upwards and downwards and into new operating systems.

If you look at the segments, smartphone, tablets and superphones in the middle, and clamshells, Tegra 2 targets very specifically superphones and tablets. With Kal-El, our next-generation that we'll ship before the end of the year, we're going to inch up into the clamshells. And with Kal-El+, our midlife kicker of Kal-El and Windows on ARM, we're going to solidly enter into the notebook market with PCs -- into the notebook PC market with these clamshells.

Wayne is our next-generation processor and then along that we have a processor called Grey. This is what we're going to integrate the Tegra processor with the Icera modem into a 4G/3G little tiny chip to address the vast majority of the smartphone market and then meanwhile, we're going to continue to introduce new operating systems.

Every time we introduce a new operating system, it allows us to enter into a new ecosystem and these ecosystems allow us growth opportunity. Today, we're the only company that offers all three versions of Android, Froyo, Gingerbread as well as Honeycomb. We're working very, very hard on the next-generation and we'll be time-to-market on that as well.

On top of that, Windows 8, Windows on ARM coming out towards the end of next year or the year after is going to be a growth opportunity for us, and Windows Phone is going to be a growth opportunity for us.

If we put that on perspective, we target today about 100 million units opportunity, the smartphone plus the tablet market, that segment -- those two segments are going to continue to grow. We are about 70% of 30% of the non-Apple tablet market today, okay. The non-Apple tablet market has grown to about 30%, we represent about 70% of that. My sense is that that's going to continue to grow and the superphone market will continue to grow, but the investments that we're making right now will help us open into $1 billion or 1 billion unit market, including PCs, tablets, and mainstream smartphones.

So, the simple way of looking at our business now looks like this, our GPU market, GPU business has a TAM of about $4.6 billion, $4.5 billion, growing to about $7 billion. The Mobile Processor market business is about 2 billion units of serviceable annual market today, growing to about $20 billion, a billion units at about $20 ASP. In total, we're going to about 4x our market opportunity in the next several years and that's what we've been so busy reinventing our Company to do.

As a outlook for next year, outlook for next year looks like somewhere between $4.7 billion to $5 billion, gross margins flattish at about 51% to 53%, and OpEx $1.38 billion non-GAAP to $1.43 billion non-GAAP, okay. So, that's our outlook for the year.

So, that's it. We've been really busy reinventing ourselves. The Company is now in two businesses, the GPU business, which is a $4.5 billion business, growing about 12%. GPU attach is solid at 53%. Our Tegra is on track for $1 billion year next year. And as a result of these two growth businesses and the investments that we're making, our business opportunity looks like it's going to grow by a factor of four to about $27 billion by 2015.

Okay. So, with that --

Glen Yeung
Citigroup Investment Research - Analyst

We are out of time.

Unidentified Company Representative

We're out of time.

Glen Yeung
Citigroup Investment Research - Analyst

Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative

Thank you very much, Glen. Thank you.

  • Kapitola 1
  • Tisková zpráva Nvidia / přepis z Citi Global Technology Conference

Témata článku: Technologie, Hardware, Budoucnost, Nvidia, Tablety, Mobility, iPad Air, Hlavní směr, Simplify, Jon Peddie, Gigantický rozměr, GMT, People, Ares, Kicker, Just, Visual Computing, Obvious, Global, War Games, USS, Like it, Forum, Gingerbread, Application c, Notebooky apple cena na Mall.cz


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